The Star Trek Future vs. the WALL-E Future
It’s not either/or
In Episode 20 we got into a discussion on which future we were heading towards with the advancements in AI and other technologies. It centered around two main possibilities, Star Trek, or WALL-E.
The socialists love to point to Star Trek as an example of the potential of socialism. (Never mind that it’s fiction). They like it because there is no economic hierarchy, no money. Clearly it’s an insult to capitalism. Or is it?
Star Trek is neither capitalist nor socialist
The actual selling point of Star Trek is that technology and resources have become so abundant that money is irrelevant. They have endless energy, endless food (literal food on demand through ‘food replicators’) and endless everything. The premise of the show is that we solved the basic functions of food and energy. Material consumerism, and thus currency of any kind, was made obsolete. When you don’t have to work for basic sustenance, then you are free to literally explore the stars.
With the advancements we’re seeing unfold in AI, robotics, and nuclear technology, it's not unreasonable to say that 100 years from now, we could be so advanced and abundant in energy, food, and labor that human beings could focus on other ideas. Right now we’re watching as 3D printers are becoming affordable. How long until you are 3D printing all your kids toys? (Yeah yeah, right now it's all non moveable resin objects, what about tomorrow?) There's an optimistic future where labor is obsolete. The problem is that the transition from here to there could be very detrimental and could actually move us backward until the new technologies get into everybody's hands.
AI could make work obsolete
While technology is scary because it's putting people out of work, 100 years from now, it could actually be a good thing. We could surpass into a system that is completely unheard of right now, something never fathomed in human history. Maybe this is a complete fantasy, but it's possible that human beings will be freed up from labor. If this happens, we will see a real bifurcation of people. We'll see people who, when they don't have to work for food and energy, go the Star Trek route, where they put all their efforts into bettering themselves through science and technology and being the best possible human they could be.
It could also make ambition obsolete
Of course, that leaves the rest of the population going the other way, the WALL-E/Idiocracy route. I wish the two weren’t connected, but it's become obvious they are linked at the hip. The rest of the population will get so fat they need a chair to move them around and their whole day will be spent masturbating to VR/AI porn.
Its not one or the other
I don’t think that these futures are one or the other, I think the most likely scenario is that both scenarios come true. It's all based on those who embrace the technology and move forward and those who become slaves to the technology.
In Episode 20 we talked about other dystopian movie scenarios, and Elysium was another possible future. One where the elites hoard the best technologies and leave the poor to be completely desolate, ultimately ending with the poor rebelling and securing the technology for everyone. I’m not worried about this type of future.
The main driver behind movies like Elysium is scarcity. We see it today, with the Davos elites pushing their agenda based on false resource scarcity. As any subscriber to Doomberg already understands, scarcity is a lie.
TLDR: Our current level of nuclear power technology (Gen 3) and known uranium deposits can power a population of ten billion for thousands of years. Factor in the advancements of Gen4, and later Gen 5, etc., we will never hurt for power. Same for agriculture production, oil, everything. Scarcity mindset is always wrong.
There is the possibility that Malthusian elites continue to ignore those realities and enact an Elysium-like future. But I think that the reality of abundance will become undeniable over the next century. Call me an optimist.
If I’m wrong and the Malthusians do hoard the tech, then the violent uprising promised by Elysium won’t happen. The WALL-E/Idiocracy future will ensure it. How much of a threat is a three hundred pound marshmallow that needs a chair to get across the room? Just keep providing processed food and VR/AI porn and they will never give you any trouble.
People will embrace free poverty
A shocking amount of the population can be kept under control with free poverty. Need proof? Have you ever driven through an American Indian Reservation? Not the casino’s, actually drive through the reservation. Especially the larger ones in the south west states. All you will see is poverty. For the most part, everyone on the reservation gets a check for being part of the tribe. Typically, you only get the check if you live on the reservation. The catch is that you have to stay poor.
A very significant percentage of those living on the reservation choose to be poor for free instead of going out and succeeding. What you'll find is that nearly all of the successful and wealthy American Indians have left the reservation and cast away the free money to make a life for themselves.
The American welfare system is hardly any different. Generational welfare of fat, undereducated poor who embrace free poverty over success.
The lesson here is that universal basic income, which is what people are going to want to push when AI starts to mass replace jobs, will not be making people's lives better. This is assuming, of course, that the population collapse and demographic collapse don't make AI a necessity versus actually replacing jobs. But if people lose their jobs en masse to AI, and you just give them universal basic income, the likelihood that they take it and choose to be poor goes through the roof.
When you have TikTok, which is digital Fentanyl, and other social media apps. When you have all these games you play on your phone that are digital Fentanyl, when you have real Fentanyl flooding the streets, and when you have food that makes you lethargic and stupid and that's delivered to your door right now through DoorDash, soon by a robot or a drone, the likelihood of people becoming complacent and choosing to live off of UBI and embody WALL-E is almost guaranteed.
Some people will gladly take money to be fat and digitally lobotomized, just sitting in their chairs masturbating all day.
This is why AI is going to lead to a bifurcation in our society. People will have a choice to embrace the Star Trek future, to use AI and robotics as a tool to free them up for better and more complicated achievements. The other choice will be an easy, stress free life of no accomplishments and no relevance. Both will happen, simultaneously.
The time in between is going to be the struggle. We can’t time this transition perfectly. Some people will lose jobs to AI before UBI is implemented. We might have enough Uranium to power us for thousands of years, but we aren’t making serious efforts at building new reactors. We know the dangers of social media, yet continue to belligerently embrace it and let children get addicted.
There is going to be pain in the near future. That’s not a reason to run from AI. Now is the time to embrace it so that you can grow and thrive through the near term pain, and avoid being a WALL-E floating chair lump in the long term.